Learning to live within a European state

I hate to say this but we need to wake up to the reality that, whether we like it or not (and I don't) we are in Europe and will stay in Europe. The reason is simple: because there is no electoral majority in the country for withdrawal.

True there are plenty of very angry people who shout loudly and say the EU is unfair, undemocratic, totalitarian, a socialist plot etc. I empathise with much of this anger and think the EU project in political terms has major flaws (though, as a free trade enthusiast, I applaud many aspects of the single, open market).

But how I feel and how you feel is actually beside the point. The political and economic reality is that all the major parties wholeheartedly (yes Conservatives included) support the EU project and have accepted the contract of "ever closer union". And the business community (both corporate bosses and trade union leaders) accept, support and demand our membership of the EU - and derive much benefit from it for their efforts.

A contract is considered accepted in law if you abide by the terms of the contract or accept the benefit of the contract even if you haven't signed it and even if you consider it unfair. Both Labour and Conservatives administrations (and by association the UK) have gone further and signed treaties that implicitly derive from the stated aim of ever closer union - and so have, de facto, accepted the inevitable creation of a legal entity and political state called Europe.

Equally many businesses and sections of our society have demanded financial, legal and political support from various elements of the EU and have got it (think farmers, trade negotiations, development funding etc). The result is that there is a large constituency in this country that will swallow any concerns it may have about loss of liberty, sovereignty and democracy in order to continue to derive financial and political benefit from the EU.

Now you may argue that if we had an “In or Out” referendum the “Outs” would win. Maybe – but so what? We are not going to have that referendum. No party is going to promise it – or at least no main stream party will (or needs to) promise it – and no minority party will ever command sufficient electoral support to force such a referendum.

This brings me back to my contention that there is no “electoral majority”. The simple fact is that 50-60% of the population don’t care enough about their future to vote – or are satisfied enough with whichever party is in power not to vote. All elections come down to a motivated 45% of the population: of which more than half will vote for the same old party regardless of policies or performance. So of the total population only some 20% could be considered active swing voters – and most people will always vote in their comfort zone – a little left, a little right but never for a revolution.

The fringe parties (and I don’t mean to be derogatory – just stating an electoral fact) are fringe because they cannot – and never will command a national electoral plurality (let alone an electoral majority). That is why Dan and others who support a more liberal economic agenda are quite rational in their decision to support the Conservatives even though they do not agree with every policy and even fundamentally disagree with a major policy such as the one on Europe.

Politics is all about trade-offs – about maximising your winnings – accepting the realities on the ground and working for change from inside the machine (rather than standing in the cold and howling at the moon). If you don’t want another five years of Brown you have to support Cameron!